For one thing, the CBC doesn’t issue blanket endorsements. “It’s up to individual members’ choice–we try not to do [preconvention] endorsements en masse, and we never have,” says a senior CBC aide, who asked not to be named for fear of stirring controversy as Congressional Democrats try to maintain postelection cohesiveness. “We have four members from Sen. Hillary Clinton’s state, and two from John Edwards’s home state, and there will be a lot of pressure on them to support the candidates from their states,” the aide says.

Ron Walters, a political science professor at the University of Maryland and a close observer of the CBC, agrees. “The CBC has too many political IOU’s out, and too many longstanding relationships, and those together will weaken Obama’s endorsements to some extent,” Walters says. “When you’ve got someone as popular as Bill Clinton [working] in Harlem and his wife is running for president, members of that delegation will think twice” about working for anyone else. “Then you have Edwards launching his campaign from the Lower 9th Ward [in New Orleans]. That’s an obvious bid for the black vote.” At the same time, Walters said, Obama will probably prove less dependent on monolithic black support than previous black presidential candidates like Shirley Chisolm, Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton. “Jesse Jackson launched his presidential campaign from the fringes and tried to get to the center,” says Walters, who was deputy campaign manager for Jackson’s 1984 presidential run. Obama “wants to be a different kind of leader–and he’s been able to launch his campaign from the center of the electorate.”

So how can Obama win over his colleagues in the Caucus? By making them look smart to be with him. “Caucus members are moved by what’s happening on the ground,” says the CBC aide. “Let’s say there turns out to be tremendous enthusiasm for Obama at the grass-roots level. Members won’t just be able to stand on the sidelines. If they’re getting calls from their constituents saying, ‘What are you waiting on?’ it might push them onto a bandwagon sooner rather than later.” In other words, like most pols, the CBC members would rather wait it out and see who eventually pulls ahead, rather than risk backing a loser. “There will be all kinds of calculations, about tradition, about relationships and about issues,” says Walters. “But every one of those will be married with another calculation–who can win?”