That’s the beast that is daily fantasy baseball. When the best players still have a 70 percent failure rate, it can be a bumpy road for even for the best navigators. The good news is that, more often than not, if you continue to stride ahead with the proper mindset and backpack full of information, the detours to success will be minor.
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As always, we’re here trying to spot the best values and fades for the upcoming week, so here are the trends, matchups and information you need to know for Week 11 in the world of DFS.
FanDuel and DraftKings strategy
PLAYER AT PEAK SALARY:
Carlos Beltran, OF, NYY ($5.3K DraftKings/$4.3K FanDuel)
I recognize ,Beltran has put together a nice stretch this month. However, the fact remains he’s a 39-year-old player heading to the thin air of Colorado for a few days. His bat was very quiet last weekend against the Tigers at home and just because he’s in Colorado for two days doesn’t make him a $5K investment on DK. For $100 dollars more, you can own Mookie Betts, who possesses infinitely more possibilities to racking up points for you in a younger, healthier body.
PITCHER PRICED BELOW VALUE:
Jake Odorizzi, TB ($8.2K DraftKings/$8.3K FanDuel)
It was tough to find a pitcher with two starts this week worth targeting twice. Many had only one good matchup, or their prices were too high to truly be cost effective. Even Drew Pomeranz has found his way to the double-digit price range. Odorizzi is at home for two starts against the Mariners and Giants in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. His 2.52 home ERA and 31 K/8 BB ratio make him a terrific value. His opponents are an up-and-down Taijuan Walker and an old relic in Matt Cain. Both matchups should yield high win potential at a reasonable cost. At the very least, you can count on good strikeout totals from Odorizzi.
HITTER PRICED BELOW VALUE:
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA ($2.9K FanDuel)
It’s finally come to this. The barbarian slugger Giancarlo Stanton has hit rock bottom. He was benched Monday night against the Padres. THE PADRES! Tonight it doesn’t get easier for him facing Drew Pomeranz, but there comes a certain time when elite talent is grossly underpriced, and we’ve officially hit bargain basement with Stanton. His DK salary is still $3.9K, which makes him less appealing there. However, on FanDuel, it’s impossible not to at least feel the need to roster him in a secondary tournament lineup. Stanton is a 50-point talent being priced like Lonnie Chisenhall. Last season, Robinson Cano suffered a similar fate, and once he hit rock bottom, he became a great value. Cano pulled himself out of the dregs and reestablished himself again as a fantasy force. Stanton is too talented not to do the same. It’s time to start buying shares.
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Daily fantasy baseball hitter strategy
The Braves are falling apart at the seams, and their patchwork Triple-A rotation is ripe for the picking. Target Adam Duvall and Joey Votto early this week and Yoenis Cespedes this weekend in cash games. You may even be able to do some mini-stacking with both the Mets and Reds by playing the splits correctly.
The Red Sox are at home all week against the suspect Orioles rotation and Felix Hernandez-less Mariners, so that should yield plenty of crooked numbers for the BoSox offense. The best offense in baseball will not disappoint.
Cubs pitching has been the best in the majors at home (2.49 ERA at Wrigley), and the Pirates are limping into Chicago this weekend. Those Cubbie starters are going to be worth the price premium. The same goes for the Mets at home against the Braves, as I mentioned earlier. The Diamondbacks staff is actually a top 10 rotation in terms of road ERA (3.79). This weekend they face the Phillies, who are 29th in runs scored at home this year despite their favorable home park. Avoid the Philly bats and upgrade those D-backs starters, including Archie Bradley, who’s shown some flashes of late.
Daily fantasy baseball lineup picks
Finally, here’s a look at Tuesday’s Relative Position Value per Dollar Lineup (RPVPD) for DraftKings. RPVPD is the Fantasy Black Book’s DFS player evaluation tool, which is only available to Fantasy Alarm subscribers. For more optimal lineups, DFS tools like RPVPD, and season-long rankings and advice, head to FantasyAlarm.com for the DFS Playbook and much more!
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.
